Cancelled or expired sales deals kept on books fog supply-demand picture
EDMONTON - "Ghost listings" could return to inflate the oversupply of Edmonton homes for sale, says realtor Rod Thompson of Re/Max Accord.
In the last three months of 2007, the inventory of homes listed for sale in metropolitan Edmonton dropped from 9,918 to 7,094 units, bringing a closer balance between buyers and sellers.
During that time, however, at least 7,000 units expired or were cancelled, Thompson says.
"I call these 'ghost listings' because they can come back and haunt you later," he has written in his latest Rod Report newsletter.
"If they do come back to the market in the spring, which is common with unsuccessful sellers from the fall and winter, they have the potential to further offset the current buyers market," he wrote.
But Marc Perras, president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton, said he considered that risk when preparing his forecast that average home prices will rise only four per cent in 2008.
"I think some of those properties will be back in the market but some will not be," he said, as some owners have abandoned hopes of selling at unrealistically high prices and others have rented their properties.
And Thompson's estimate of ghost listings could be exaggerated, said Jon Hall, RAE marketing manager, because many listings were cancelled then immediately renewed to create the appearance of fresh, new listings.
Perras said he expected inventory to rise early in 2008, then decline with rising sales.
With a good selection, and prices expected to remain flat or rise slightly, "a lot of people are saying now is a good time to buy," and sales have been brisk in early January, Perras said.
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
2007 just shy of record year
Metro area enjoyed third-best year on record, CMHC reports
EDMONTON - Edmonton-area housing starts fell in December, leaving the 2007 total just short of an all-time record.
The 578 monthly starts were down 15 per cent from December 2006 -- the second consecutive monthly decline.
"For all of 2007, total housing starts reached 14,888 units, the third-best year on record and only 82 units shy of 2006's performance," Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported Wednesday.
"Total housing starts across (metropolitan Edmonton) have now exceeded 11,000 units on an annual basis for an unprecedented sixth year in a row."
Comparing 2007 to 2006, starts of single-family houses were down 15.2 per cent while starts of multiple units were up 22 per cent.
Across Alberta, total housing starts for the year were up 64 per cent in Camrose, 57 per cent in Lethbridge, 40 per cent in Wood Buffalo and nine per cent in Red Deer. They were level in Grande Prairie and down 21 per cent in metropolitan Calgary.
CMHC analyst Lindsay Kendall said Wednesday that she thought Edmonton employment grew by as much as six per cent in 2007 -- compared to a forecast of only 5.3 per cent.
She expected new Edmonton-area condominium starts to continue rising in 2008.
But starts of single-detached houses will fall from about 7,700 in 2007 to about 6,700 in 2008, she said.
The price of new, single-detached houses, which averaged $440,000 in 2007, will hit $500,000 in 2008, she predicted.
The apartment construction price index will have risen about 30 per cent in two years, by the end of 2008, said Kendall, speaking in the Realtors Association of Edmonton Housing Forecast Seminar.
She expects apartment vacancies to average about 1.5 per cent in 2008, and average monthly rents for two-bedroom units to rise approximately 12 per cent to about $1,070
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Thursday, January 10, 2008
EDMONTON - Edmonton-area housing starts fell in December, leaving the 2007 total just short of an all-time record.
The 578 monthly starts were down 15 per cent from December 2006 -- the second consecutive monthly decline.
"For all of 2007, total housing starts reached 14,888 units, the third-best year on record and only 82 units shy of 2006's performance," Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported Wednesday.
"Total housing starts across (metropolitan Edmonton) have now exceeded 11,000 units on an annual basis for an unprecedented sixth year in a row."
Comparing 2007 to 2006, starts of single-family houses were down 15.2 per cent while starts of multiple units were up 22 per cent.
Across Alberta, total housing starts for the year were up 64 per cent in Camrose, 57 per cent in Lethbridge, 40 per cent in Wood Buffalo and nine per cent in Red Deer. They were level in Grande Prairie and down 21 per cent in metropolitan Calgary.
CMHC analyst Lindsay Kendall said Wednesday that she thought Edmonton employment grew by as much as six per cent in 2007 -- compared to a forecast of only 5.3 per cent.
She expected new Edmonton-area condominium starts to continue rising in 2008.
But starts of single-detached houses will fall from about 7,700 in 2007 to about 6,700 in 2008, she said.
The price of new, single-detached houses, which averaged $440,000 in 2007, will hit $500,000 in 2008, she predicted.
The apartment construction price index will have risen about 30 per cent in two years, by the end of 2008, said Kendall, speaking in the Realtors Association of Edmonton Housing Forecast Seminar.
She expects apartment vacancies to average about 1.5 per cent in 2008, and average monthly rents for two-bedroom units to rise approximately 12 per cent to about $1,070
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Realtors predict slight hike in house prices
First-time homebuyers opt for longer amortization periods, banker says
EDMONTON - Edmonton-area home prices will rise four per cent over the next 12 months, predicts the president of the Realtors' Association of Edmonton.
"If my forecast is accurate, then single-family detached homes will sell for $397,303 next year, and condos will be priced at $263,400," Mark Perras said Wednesday at the REA annual forecast seminar. Almost 500 realtors attended the sold-out event at the Westin Hotel.
Increases will be restrained by a large supply of listed homes and steep price hikes over the past 18 months -- offsetting the positive effects of a strong economy, positive in-migration, nearly full employment and low interest rates, he said.
Ian Glassford, chief financial officer of Servus Credit Union, also expects small gains. "Maybe one or two per cent," he said. "Not five or 10 per cent."
Glassford said the Edmonton market faces "a lot of headwind from the U.S.," where foreclosures, falling prices and tightening mortgage loan requirements have hurt real estate values.
That credit crunch affects Canada indirectly, Glassford said. He believes a more important effect is "mostly psychological" as the U. S. example causes some Canadians to lose confidence in real estate investments.
While interest rates have risen slightly, Steve Blakely, president of Servus Credit Union, noted that longer amortization periods have helped affordability. Last year, 12 per cent of Servus mortgages were undertaken with 40-year amortization periods and 10 per cent with periods of 30 or 35 years.
Lindsay Kendall, a market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, predicted that Edmonton prices for all forms of resale housing will rise 6.5 per cent this year, to $360,000.
Perras pointed out that rising prices over the past three years have squeezed out many would-be first-time buyers.
"Housing is a provincial responsibility," he said. While Premier Ed Stelmach has pledged $285 million toward the problem, that promise pales beside the $6.4 billion committed to teacher pensions, Perras said.
He urged support for a range of programs for people with physical, mental, social and addiction problems, recent immigrants, and the working poor who cannot afford market rates for available housing.
Lawyer Sonny Mirth noted that parts of the higher-end condo market have short supply.
He saw "a need for larger, upscale units for empty-nesters" -- and more demand than supply of "staged, integrated housing," for residents who may need increasing levels of assistance.
Perras predicted a slight drop in residential unit sales. "I expect that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS in 2008, as compared to 20,544 sales in 2007."
Ron Gilbertson, executive director of the Edmonton Economic Development Corporation, looked beyond home prices to announce that Edmonton could become one of the world's great medium-size cities by improving its safety, urban and external transportation, and self-image.
We already have a world-leading economic base, outstanding health and educational systems, and excellent cultural and recreational amenities, he said.
But Edmonton's murder rate has ranked number 1 or number 2 in Canada for two years.
Also, "we have been growing so fast that we have been unable to keep up our urban transportation system."
And Edmontonians often are their own most severe critics, Gilbertson said. "One of the worst things we do is bad-mouth ourselves."
Edmonton housing, compared to medium-size cities nationally and internationally, is "relatively affordable" he said. But he worried about the effects of economic growth on lower-income families.
"It isn't going to work if it's just the rich getting richer."
Gilbertson cautioned that dealing with greenhouse gas emissions from the energy industry presents a major challenge to this province.
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Thursday, January 10, 2008
EDMONTON - Edmonton-area home prices will rise four per cent over the next 12 months, predicts the president of the Realtors' Association of Edmonton.
"If my forecast is accurate, then single-family detached homes will sell for $397,303 next year, and condos will be priced at $263,400," Mark Perras said Wednesday at the REA annual forecast seminar. Almost 500 realtors attended the sold-out event at the Westin Hotel.
Increases will be restrained by a large supply of listed homes and steep price hikes over the past 18 months -- offsetting the positive effects of a strong economy, positive in-migration, nearly full employment and low interest rates, he said.
Ian Glassford, chief financial officer of Servus Credit Union, also expects small gains. "Maybe one or two per cent," he said. "Not five or 10 per cent."
Glassford said the Edmonton market faces "a lot of headwind from the U.S.," where foreclosures, falling prices and tightening mortgage loan requirements have hurt real estate values.
That credit crunch affects Canada indirectly, Glassford said. He believes a more important effect is "mostly psychological" as the U. S. example causes some Canadians to lose confidence in real estate investments.
While interest rates have risen slightly, Steve Blakely, president of Servus Credit Union, noted that longer amortization periods have helped affordability. Last year, 12 per cent of Servus mortgages were undertaken with 40-year amortization periods and 10 per cent with periods of 30 or 35 years.
Lindsay Kendall, a market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, predicted that Edmonton prices for all forms of resale housing will rise 6.5 per cent this year, to $360,000.
Perras pointed out that rising prices over the past three years have squeezed out many would-be first-time buyers.
"Housing is a provincial responsibility," he said. While Premier Ed Stelmach has pledged $285 million toward the problem, that promise pales beside the $6.4 billion committed to teacher pensions, Perras said.
He urged support for a range of programs for people with physical, mental, social and addiction problems, recent immigrants, and the working poor who cannot afford market rates for available housing.
Lawyer Sonny Mirth noted that parts of the higher-end condo market have short supply.
He saw "a need for larger, upscale units for empty-nesters" -- and more demand than supply of "staged, integrated housing," for residents who may need increasing levels of assistance.
Perras predicted a slight drop in residential unit sales. "I expect that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS in 2008, as compared to 20,544 sales in 2007."
Ron Gilbertson, executive director of the Edmonton Economic Development Corporation, looked beyond home prices to announce that Edmonton could become one of the world's great medium-size cities by improving its safety, urban and external transportation, and self-image.
We already have a world-leading economic base, outstanding health and educational systems, and excellent cultural and recreational amenities, he said.
But Edmonton's murder rate has ranked number 1 or number 2 in Canada for two years.
Also, "we have been growing so fast that we have been unable to keep up our urban transportation system."
And Edmontonians often are their own most severe critics, Gilbertson said. "One of the worst things we do is bad-mouth ourselves."
Edmonton housing, compared to medium-size cities nationally and internationally, is "relatively affordable" he said. But he worried about the effects of economic growth on lower-income families.
"It isn't going to work if it's just the rich getting richer."
Gilbertson cautioned that dealing with greenhouse gas emissions from the energy industry presents a major challenge to this province.
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
2007 Housing Year a Roller-Coaster
Edmonton, January 3, 2007: In the beginning of 2007 housing prices continued to climb just like the year before but by mid-year the market had turned and prices cooled as the housing inventory quadrupled. Year end figures released by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton reveal the largest swings ever experienced in the local market. Despite the roller-coaster-like rises and falls, the market still ended up 12% ahead of last year’s prices.
“REALTORS® were assisting sellers to handle multiple offers and unbelievable short sales periods for the first half of the year,” said Carolyn Pratt, President of the REALTORS® Association. “The summer it was a buyers market with ten homes available for every buyer.” The sudden changes in market conditions made both buyers and sellers anxious and increased their dependence on solid market advice from their REALTOR®. “Now the market seems to have stabilized and returned to what we call normal,” said Pratt.
PRICES
Single family dwellings listed on the Multiple Listing Service® which sold on January 1 for $341,933 on average* were priced at $382,022 at the end of December. Although 11.7% higher than a year ago the December prices were off 11.5% from the peak prices in May. December prices were 1.5% higher than November 2007.
Condominiums on MLS® sold on average for $253,270 in December after starting the year at $227,428. They peaked in July at $271,908. Condo prices were also up 11.4% over the year and up 0.4% from last month. Duplex/rowhouse prices jumped 4.0% from $295,178 last December to $306,967 in December 2007. Duplex/rowhouse prices peaked in October at $367.964.
Despite price decreases in the last few months, year-over-year prices were up. The average residential sales price (which includes all types of residential property) was up 1.5% from last month at $329,705 and up 12.1% when compared to last December prices.
SALES
“The rapidly increases in housing costs forced more first-time buyers to consider the lower priced condominiums,” said Pratt. “As a result there has been a continuous increase in condominium sales in the past five years.” Total condo sales of 7,157 units in 2007 were up 6% from 2006 when 6,761 units were sold.
At the same time Single Family Dwelling sales on 2007 dropped back to 11,765 units sold. Sales of SFDS were higher in each of the past three years. SFDs now represent 69% of total residential sales as compared to 27% (up from 23% last year) for condos.
Total sales (including residential, commercial and rural sales) through the MLS® in 2008 were 23,333 units with a value of over $8.2 billion (up from $6.6 billion in 2006).
In December the residential sales to listing ratio was 62% with 1,388 listings and 857 sales. For the year there were 41,030 residential listings with 20,544 sales for a S/L ratio of just 50%. The average days-on-market at the end of December was 56 days with 7,094 residential units in inventory in the wider Edmonton market.
Despite the wildly dynamic nature of the market in the past 24 months, the number of REALTORS® (i.e. members of the Association) increased through the year from 3,104 to 3,241 which indicates some optimism in the market potential.
“REALTORS® were assisting sellers to handle multiple offers and unbelievable short sales periods for the first half of the year,” said Carolyn Pratt, President of the REALTORS® Association. “The summer it was a buyers market with ten homes available for every buyer.” The sudden changes in market conditions made both buyers and sellers anxious and increased their dependence on solid market advice from their REALTOR®. “Now the market seems to have stabilized and returned to what we call normal,” said Pratt.
PRICES
Single family dwellings listed on the Multiple Listing Service® which sold on January 1 for $341,933 on average* were priced at $382,022 at the end of December. Although 11.7% higher than a year ago the December prices were off 11.5% from the peak prices in May. December prices were 1.5% higher than November 2007.
Condominiums on MLS® sold on average for $253,270 in December after starting the year at $227,428. They peaked in July at $271,908. Condo prices were also up 11.4% over the year and up 0.4% from last month. Duplex/rowhouse prices jumped 4.0% from $295,178 last December to $306,967 in December 2007. Duplex/rowhouse prices peaked in October at $367.964.
Despite price decreases in the last few months, year-over-year prices were up. The average residential sales price (which includes all types of residential property) was up 1.5% from last month at $329,705 and up 12.1% when compared to last December prices.
SALES
“The rapidly increases in housing costs forced more first-time buyers to consider the lower priced condominiums,” said Pratt. “As a result there has been a continuous increase in condominium sales in the past five years.” Total condo sales of 7,157 units in 2007 were up 6% from 2006 when 6,761 units were sold.
At the same time Single Family Dwelling sales on 2007 dropped back to 11,765 units sold. Sales of SFDS were higher in each of the past three years. SFDs now represent 69% of total residential sales as compared to 27% (up from 23% last year) for condos.
Total sales (including residential, commercial and rural sales) through the MLS® in 2008 were 23,333 units with a value of over $8.2 billion (up from $6.6 billion in 2006).
In December the residential sales to listing ratio was 62% with 1,388 listings and 857 sales. For the year there were 41,030 residential listings with 20,544 sales for a S/L ratio of just 50%. The average days-on-market at the end of December was 56 days with 7,094 residential units in inventory in the wider Edmonton market.
Despite the wildly dynamic nature of the market in the past 24 months, the number of REALTORS® (i.e. members of the Association) increased through the year from 3,104 to 3,241 which indicates some optimism in the market potential.
Monday, January 7, 2008
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