'Ghost listings' haunt real estate stats

Cancelled or expired sales deals kept on books fog supply-demand picture

EDMONTON - "Ghost listings" could return to inflate the oversupply of Edmonton homes for sale, says realtor Rod Thompson of Re/Max Accord.

In the last three months of 2007, the inventory of homes listed for sale in metropolitan Edmonton dropped from 9,918 to 7,094 units, bringing a closer balance between buyers and sellers.

During that time, however, at least 7,000 units expired or were cancelled, Thompson says.

"I call these 'ghost listings' because they can come back and haunt you later," he has written in his latest Rod Report newsletter.

"If they do come back to the market in the spring, which is common with unsuccessful sellers from the fall and winter, they have the potential to further offset the current buyers market," he wrote.

But Marc Perras, president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton, said he considered that risk when preparing his forecast that average home prices will rise only four per cent in 2008.

"I think some of those properties will be back in the market but some will not be," he said, as some owners have abandoned hopes of selling at unrealistically high prices and others have rented their properties.

And Thompson's estimate of ghost listings could be exaggerated, said Jon Hall, RAE marketing manager, because many listings were cancelled then immediately renewed to create the appearance of fresh, new listings.

Perras said he expected inventory to rise early in 2008, then decline with rising sales.

With a good selection, and prices expected to remain flat or rise slightly, "a lot of people are saying now is a good time to buy," and sales have been brisk in early January, Perras said.

Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Saturday, January 19, 2008